NSIM'15

[bjvircks]

Well, I've done my part in trying to assure good conditions for this year's race! I bought a set of 105mm rain wheels and double sealed bearings for my wife to ward off wet conditions. What should I buy to prevent headwinds?

[Mort]

Originally Posted by bjvircks

What should I buy to prevent headwinds?

A special made "golf ball" aerodynamic skin suit that cuts through the wind. All to have the event be a 10-20mph breeze of a tailwind that your suit virtually negates. Do it for the people!

[fuss]

Originally Posted by bjvircks

Well, I've done my part in trying to assure good conditions for this year's race! I bought a set of 105mm rain wheels and double sealed bearings for my wife to ward off wet conditions. What should I buy to prevent headwinds?

What kind of bearings are they? I could probably use a set like that just in case.

[bjvircks]

bearings are Twincam ILQ-X mr2

I got them because our training trail runs thru farmland and in the spring the dust coming off the fields from the tilling and planting gets everywhere, especially when there is a light misting of moisture on the trail. I got tired of cleaning 2 sets of bearings 2 or 3 times every spring. We'll see next year if they help any.

the road paving sounds like is shaping up for NSIM'15!



registration numbers are down again.

NSIM registrations					
					
                   2015      2014		
         as of    11-Aug    13-Aug
		
                   1083      1186    -9%
					
elite marathon      62         77   -19%
-------------------------------------------
men open             9         11   -18%
men 30-39            2          8   -75%
men 40-49           12         18   -33%
men 50+             27         32   -16%
women               12          8   +50%

					
adv/rec marathon   823        889    -7%
-------------------------------------------
adv 1               60         63    -5%
adv 2               70         61   +15%
adv 3               75         76    -1%
rec 1              227        223    +2%
rec 2              209        230    -9%
rec 3              182        236   -23%
		
half marathon      163        184   -11%

combined half/full  17         21   -19%
					
rollerski           18         15   +20%

[bjvircks]

Originally Posted by Mort

special made "golf ball" aerodynamic skin suit

super idea... I could make one myself (sort of) by gluing 1/2 ping pong balls to a suit! I'd have to make sure it didn't look too much like a Dalek.

[usask8er1]

Originally Posted by bjvircks

bearings are Twincam ILQ-X mr2

I got them because our training trail runs thru farmland and in the spring the dust coming off the fields from the tilling and planting gets everywhere, especially when there is a light misting of moisture on the trail. I got tired of cleaning 2 sets of bearings 2 or 3 times every spring. We'll see next year if they help any.

the road paving sounds like is shaping up for NSIM'15!



registration numbers are down again.

NSIM registrations					
					
                   2015      2014		
         as of    11-Aug    13-Aug
		
                   1083      1186    -9%
					
elite marathon      62         77   -19%
-------------------------------------------
men open             9         11   -18%
men 30-39            2          8   -75%
men 40-49           12         18   -33%
men 50+             27         32   -16%
women               12          8   +50%

					
adv/rec marathon   823        889    -7%
-------------------------------------------
adv 1               60         63    -5%
adv 2               70         61   +15%
adv 3               75         76    -1%
rec 1              227        223    +2%
rec 2              209        230    -9%
rec 3              182        236   -23%
		
half marathon      163        184   -11%

combined half/full  17         21   -19%
					
rollerski           18         15   +20%

Just looking at the entry fees this year, even with attendance down they have already collected $136,000... plus what ever other entries come in. Im curious if the entry fees were not so high, how much that could boost their attendance. I know a few people who will likely not make it due to the cost.

[bjvircks]

Here is again, with data from 2012 added. Wish I had 2013.

As we all know... participation continues to drop and I don't know if there is very much "skating wise" the NSIM leadership can do about it. Maybe something on the side could be tied in and promoted which could tap into our general demographic (fun, athletic, young at heart). Maybe some entertainment. Maybe a beer tent outside to cater to the rec crowd (the big participation numbers). Maybe associated lodging could offer NSIM special rates that would encourage folks to come instead of stay home. A rate drop might not have to be huge... but enough to say "hey, we WANT you to come, so we aren't going to over-charge you"

NSIM registration comparison
                                        2015                   2015
                   2015         2014     vs           2012      vs
         as of    Aug 11       Aug 13   2014         Aug 12    2012

total on wheels    1083         1186    -9%           1342     -19%

elite marathon      62            77   -19%             83     -25%
---------------------------------------------------------------------
men open             9            11   -18%             13     -31%
men 30-39            2             8   -75%              5     -60%
men 40-49           12            18   -33%             15     -20%
men 50+             27            32   -16%             41     -34%
women               12             8   +50%              9     +33%


adv/rec marathon   823           889    -7%           1051     -22%
---------------------------------------------------------------------
adv 1               60  (205)     63    -5%            192      +7%
adv 2               70            61   +15%
adv 3               75            76    -1%

rec 1              227  (618)    223    +2%            859     -28%
rec 2              209           230    -9%
rec 3              182           236   -23%
		
half marathon      163           184   -11%            189     -14%

combined half/full  17            21   -19%             19     -11%
					
rollerski           18            15   +20%             34     -47%

[theDonnybrook]

I am teaching a seminar in the Twin Cities that Saturday, and won't be making the race. Next year, though...

[ese002]

Originally Posted by theDonnybrook

I am teaching a seminar in the Twin Cities that Saturday, and won't be making the race. Next year, though...

Damn! Of all the days...

[bjvircks]

NSIM '15 registrations as of Aug 9

total on wheels    1332

elite marathon      87
----------------------
men open            19
men 30-39            3
men 40-49           17
men 50+             32
women               16


adv/rec marathon   981
----------------------
adv 1               84
adv 2               86
adv 3               84

rec 1              266
rec 2              244
rec 3              217
		
half marathon      219

combined half/full  21

rollerski           24

[bjvircks]

as of Aug 9

   Elite OPEN
Jonathan  	Bell
Jan	Blockhuijsen
Jose	Bordas
Daniel August	Brown
Clint	Canington
Kevin	Carroll
Jorge	Cifuentes
Peter	Doucet
Kelin	Dunfee
Wesley	Gandy
Manuel	Gonzales
Elias	Hendrickson
Eddy	matzger
Ryan	McGee
Sean	OBrien
Andrew	Reichert
Justin	Stelly
Bart	Swings

   Elite 30 - 39
Jonathan  Jackson
Ron	Marfori
Steve	Meisinger

   Elite 40 - 49
Gary	Blank
michele	cicognani
noel	creager
Danny	Frederick
Ben	Hall
Jens	Johansson
Larry	Kaufman
Norman	Kirby
Jeffrey	Kohn
Sergio	Melilli
Robert	Motta
Brian	Oswald
Kimon	Papahadjopoulos
Tommy	Peterson
Christopher	Rojo
Todd	Schneider
Mike	Stout

   Elite 50 +
Rick	Abrahamson
Thomas	Ashton
Bob	Clare
Daniel	Collins
john	crysdale
Hernan	Diaz
Alex	Fedak
William	Field
John	Garrett
Herb	GAYLE
Brian	Geisel
Larry	Griffin
Brian	Holtan
peter	Jennik
Gary	Johnson
brian	johnstone
Walter	Langley
Stephen	Larios
Alan	Marcosson
Doug	McDonald
jim	mckee
Greg	Miller
James	ohearn
Dave	Pate
Randy	Plett
John	Schulte
john	sherwin
Keith	Svir
david	swan
jeff	Terwilliger
Alexander	Van Duyne
Jack	Wussler


   Elite Women
Rachel	Adkins
Franchesca	Bell
Brianna	Bocox
Brittany	Bowe
Maria	De Souza
Morgane	Echardour
Kelsey	Helman
Manon	Kamminga
Stacia	Marsolek
Jessica	Nowacki
kara	parker
Melissa	Perry
Chrysta	Rands
Ami	Raynor
Sara	Rehklau
Candy	Wong


   Adv 1
Remo	Allemann
Nina	Arteaga
Gregory	Ash
kenneth	bjorlin
Randy	Bowman
Sarah	Brown
bill	callas
Todd	Campbell
Kevin	Cannell
Renee	Coffman
Richard	Czaczkowski
dayton	danielson
Chris	Dunham
Eric	Edwards
Amy	Entzminger-Bussey
Kris	Felstehausen
Deke	Finley
Brian	Fussell
Drew	Getman
Samuel	Gyorfi
Jeffrey	Hall
Kim	Hallgren
DOUGLAS	Hanson
Isaac	Harker
Alex	Harvey
bob	Harwell
Markus	Hattenbach
Hannah	Hendrickson
Josiah	Hendrickson
Brian	Hirabayashi
Frank	Holland
Susie	Jackson
CHUANBO	JIAO
Kevin	Johnson
KENT	JUNKERT
Jason	Kissner
Randy	Knudson
Scott 	kornahrens
Paul	Krentz
Travis	Lambert
Andy	Lemberger
Alexander	Logisz
Chris	Martin
Pat	Melby
Scott	Muhne
Dino	Musielewicz
Robert	Musielewicz
Paul E	OHearn
Judy	Oliverius
Michael	Olson
Daniel	Overby
Melissa	Overton
Dan	Paulsrud
Mike	Petite
Joseph	Post
Timothy	Pothen
dan	rooney
Ron	Rost
Rob	Roussel
Susan	Scheer
Dale	Shimmin
Bruce	Sienkowski
Brian	Sievers
Matthew	Sievers
Michael	Smith
james	sokolowski
richard	steinle
Daniel	Steltz
Jeff	Steltz
Blake	Sundeen
Guy	Taccona
David	Tapper
Tony	Toffol
Michael	Torchia
Tavis	Trosen
Brad	Vircks
Wayne	Wilmot
Chad	Wilson
Brian	Wolf
lincheng	Xiu
Gary	Yanagita
Frances	Ziegler
Mark	Ziegler

[ese002]

Browsing through the FAQ, I see this line:

If you have raced the race before, the computer will place you electronically. If this is your first race we will go by your estimation of your finish time.

Has anyone ever been automatically placed by the computer? This will be my 6th year and it seems like I have always manually selected my wave.

[Spencer.Berry]

I'm guessing that Bart will go on a solo breakaway for the final 26.2 miles

[ese002]

Originally Posted by Spencer.Berry

I'm guessing that Bart will go on a solo breakaway for the final 26.2 miles

Might be a challenge if the current prediction of a 9mph head wind bears out.

Grand Forks was crazy this year. A 12mph tail wind meant that the first three across the line were solo breakaways with minutes of separation between them and between #3 and the "lead" pack.

[sxevegan]

The headwinds will probably discourage the pack from an organized chase, so I think it favors a small breakaway staying away. I don't know if Bart will be able to get away solo early. I'm betting a small group of about 4 or 5 guys (including Bart and Joey) will get away a few miles into the race. The chase pack will go hard for a while, but will lose momentum and the lead group will get out of site.

I'm curious to see how the break works together once they are out of site. There's a chance that as they get closer to the highway, they will start playing the cat and mouse game and the chase could catch (like it did a few years ago), but I kind of doubt it.

Anyway, just my prediction. We'll see how close it plays out to that.

[gopherfan]

Not that I'm watching, but recent forecasts have trended to a tailwind. Currently I see 4mph from the north at 9am shifting to NNE at 10am.

[bjvircks]

yippee! the forecast of 50% chance of light rain has been replaced by SUNSHINE!! It must have been the purchase of boot covers that chased away the clouds.

The forecast I have says to expect 6 to 7 mph breeze from NW... which means drafting just a bit left of center of the person in front.

[mrv]

Originally Posted by bjvircks

yippee! the forecast of 50% chance of light rain has been replaced by SUNSHINE!! It must have been the purchase of boot covers that chased away the clouds.

The forecast I have says to expect 6 to 7 mph breeze from NW... which means drafting just a bit left of center of the person in front.

It's funny guys that no one mentioned Jan Blokhujsen because the scenario is very clear.
It seems the plan is as follows:

1) 1 mile after the start Bart and Jan (who dont know who Jan is - look into wiki) probably will push to the limit and broke the elite group - maybe one, two, three skaters will be able to survive next 3-5 miles (it depends if they will cooperate with B&J or not)
2) after mile 7 - Bart and Jan will be probably alone

Assuming weak side wind and 125mm frames they will be able to maintain ~47km/h - it allows to go below 54mins.

Bart already did the same with Severin Widmer (he was outpaced ~10 mins before finish) last year in Berlin. I think Jan has no significant experience in inline but he is stronger than Bart on ice and Stronger than widmer on inlines. Depending on the road situation Jan will try to do the same or even will pass the finish with Bart. On 110 wheels they can broke the record but by seconds and wind they will play important role.

sxevegan: I don't think Joey is endurance skater and if he starts he may be one of the skaters who survive 7 miles. Afaik Joey will not start there - if he will, he for sure help Bart as he knows perfectly he is not endurace type of skater.

Spencer.Berry: Bart many times mentioned (in Berlin in afterrace interviews) that he hoped that Severin Widmer survive at least 40 mins cause he was not sure about surviving alone.

[kufman]

sxevegan: I don't think Joey is endurance skater and if he starts he may be one of the skaters who survive 7 miles. Afaik Joey will not start there - if he will, he for sure help Bart as he knows perfectly he is not endurace type of skater.

I think it really depends on what Joey has been doing for training. He has won many marathons in the past with times approaching 1hr5min. Hard to say what he will be able to do.

No matter who is up front, if they don't have kind of tail wind there is really no chance to break the record. If you assume that Chad had a 10mph tail wind, then his speed relative to the air was only 17mph. Wind resistance goes as the square of the velocity so if you have no tail wind you will have 250% more resistance to maintain 27mph. (27^2)/(17^2) = 2.52 = 252%. This assumes that all other things are equal. Big wheels help but I don't think they help in that much.

The calculator on this page is fun to play with.

https://www.exploratorium.edu/cyclin...dynamics1.html

[usask8er1]

Originally Posted by mrv

It's funny guys that no one mentioned Jan Blokhujsen because the scenario is very clear.
It seems the plan is as follows:

1) 1 mile after the start Bart and Jan (who dont know who Jan is - look into wiki) probably will push to the limit and broke the elite group - maybe one, two, three skaters will be able to survive next 3-5 miles (it depends if they will cooperate with B&J or not)
2) after mile 7 - Bart and Jan will be probably alone

Assuming weak side wind and 125mm frames they will be able to maintain ~47km/h - it allows to go below 54mins.

Bart already did the same with Severin Widmer (he was outpaced ~10 mins before finish) last year in Berlin. I think Jan has no significant experience in inline but he is stronger than Bart on ice and Stronger than widmer on inlines. Depending on the road situation Jan will try to do the same or even will pass the finish with Bart. On 110 wheels they can broke the record but by seconds and wind they will play important role.

sxevegan: I don't think Joey is endurance skater and if he starts he may be one of the skaters who survive 7 miles. Afaik Joey will not start there - if he will, he for sure help Bart as he knows perfectly he is not endurace type of skater.

Spencer.Berry: Bart many times mentioned (in Berlin in afterrace interviews) that he hoped that Severin Widmer survive at least 40 mins cause he was not sure about surviving alone.

Looks like Joey indeed can be an endurance skater. Bummer the record didnt fall. Kind of make me wonder about Harry Vogels claim that the record was BS.