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Old August 14th, 2019, 01:36 PM   #1
ursle
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Default What Recession?

Well, "Trumpeconomics" are kicking in, when you give the 1% a 1 Trillion Dollar Tax break and you gut everyone's medical insurance and you start Trade Wars and you alienate all your trade partners and you really have no idea how to run a business, any business, the results will follow.

It took six years for Bush Jr to tank the Economy, Trump is going into year three well, it's year two.

What's that?
Trump backed off his Trade War with China.
Trump publicly declared he wouldn't interfere... if the Chinese Government sent it's army to Hong Kong to beat the Public Down, Trump is going to be silent concerning Chin'a Human Right's Violations.

While in the meantime the Trump Company is building lavish resorts which include "Theme Parks" in Bali and West Java, the Theme Parks are being built by the Chinese, and Financing for the projects is Chinese, why would Trump possibly stop China from incurring human right's violation on it's own people, he's in business with the Chinese Government, another impeachable offense of the emoluments Clause".

Ooops,
JAKARTA, Indonesia, the Indonesian's have cancelled the deal because of the Chinese Financing.

Well, the beginning of the end of the Trump Joy Ride is very clear in the below information.


The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note on Wednesday broke below the 2-year rate, an odd bond market phenomenon that has been a reliable indicator for economic recessions. The move shows increasing worries about the global economy as investors rush into safe haven assets.

Early Wednesday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was at 1.623 percent, below that on the 2-year yield at 1.634 percent. The last inversion of this part of the yield curve was in December 2005, two years before a recession brought on by the financial crisis hit.

Investors are now demanding higher interest rates on short-term debt than they are longer term debt, a phenomena known as an “inverted yield curve.” Investors often give the spread between the 10-year and the 2-year special attention because inversions of that part of the curve have preceded every recession over the past 50 years, albeit even years before an economic downturn hit.

While the inversion is cause for concern, there is often a significant lag before a recession hits and an economic downturn ensues.

Data from Credit Suisse going back to 1978 shows:

The last five 2-10 inversions have eventually led to recessions.
A recession occurs, on average, 22 months following a 2-10 inversion.
The S&P 500 is up, on average, 12 percent one year after a 2-10 inversion.
It’s not until about 18 months after when the stock market usually turns and posts negative returns.
Going farther back in history, the yield curve’s track record gets a little more spotty. Post WWII, inversions have predicted seven of the last nine recessions, according to Sung Won Sohn, professor of economics at Loyola Marymount University and president of SS Economics.

“If the inversion started today, the economy could be in a recession within a year,” said Sohn.

Long-term yields have plummeted in August as concerns surrounding trade developments and GDP growth — coupled with expectations for lackluster inflation and more aggressive central bank action — have sent nervous traders in search of safer investments.
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Old August 15th, 2019, 12:15 AM   #2
fierocious1
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Default Rufus

Your inbox is full,
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Old August 15th, 2019, 12:31 AM   #3
rufusprime99
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Originally Posted by fierocious1 View Post
Your inbox is full,
Made some room.
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Old August 15th, 2019, 12:52 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by rufusprime99 View Post
Made some room.
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